Verbs are disrupting nouns and behavior the new platform

Verbs are disrupting Nouns!  Almost every company CXO or board member or investor one speaks with and the question is common. How are we getting disrupted and it seems like in slow motion that there is nothing we can do to stop this change? What should we do? Why are tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars in value chains either at risk or getting disrupted as we speak globally?

Behavior (noun from the verb, “behave”) disrupting companies and industries as platforms on a scale never witnessed before? Economics of 5Cs, Context, Community, Content, Collaboration and Commerce are now less than $0.001/behavior. How did Intermarche, a French company leveraged “ugly vegetables instead of throwing them away” a pilot that actually sold out! Or companies such as Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, SolarCity, et al disrupting industries?

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http://www.wimp.com/allsupermarkets/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-2693000/Forget-ugli-fruit-meet-ugly-fruit-bowl-French-supermarket-introduces-lumpy-misshapen-fruit-vegetables-sold-30-discount-combat-food-waste.html

Let’s start with some very interesting behaviors or how platforms are leveraging new business models + supplychain optimization to create a new competitive advantage by inventing new industries that are moving;

# Consumption to Prosumption – Postpaid to Prepaid

# Ownership to Access – Subscription

# Capex to Opex – Subscription/OnDemand

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All above are behaviors! What disruptive startups are doing are creating platforms which are software algorithms wrapped around behavioral business models that capture demand and map to supply, while turning the entire value chain into services! The result. New metrics for value.

1. Value capture (verb) – Connecting fragmented demand and supply via Aggregation

2. Value sharing (verb) – Including the demand-supply chains as benefices of economies of scale and scope as ecosystems

3. Value unlocking (verb) –  Geometric or exponential return by lowering Inventory holding, Higher Stock Turns, Lower Cash Conversion Cycles and Higher GM/Stock Turn, for every stakeholder, demand-supply, employee and investor

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Some quick examples.

A look at Airbnb. Built around a behavioral platform of “Trust”. (From Google trends)

 

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#PredictablyIrrational resultant behaviors

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/29/airbnb-laws-san-francisco_n_5235820.html

 

A look at SolarCity Built around a behavioral platform of “scarcity”. (From Google trends)

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#PredictablyIrrational resultant behaviors

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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/15/solarcitys-new-trillion-dollar-enemy.aspx

A look at Tesla. Built around a behavioral platform of “Risk” (From Google trends)

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#PredictablyIrrational resultant behaviors

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http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/03/12/tesla-vs-new-jersey-the-other-side-of-the-argument/

A look at Uber. Built around a behavioral platform of “Access” (From Google trends)

 

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#PredictablyIrrational resultant behaviors

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Looking at interest in Fortune 500, Forbes 100, S&P to startups and the trends are incredible. Verbs are disrupting Nouns!

 

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Losses, poor asset quality, high inventory, low stock turns, high Cash Conversion Cycles, low GM/Stock Turn and predictably irrational behaviors in PE ratios.

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By looking at behaviors and mapping to fundamentals is the nature of our work. This gives us as a team the algorithmic ability to look at what’s broken in an industry, company or market and what our model creates as a result from there on what the next opportunity, business model and investment opportunity will be.

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It’s the (behavioral) economy stupid!

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http://harvardpolitics.com/united-states/its-the-economy-stupid/

 

Job description: Entrepreneur in Residence – Disrupt our industry!

I was asked yesterday by a a chief executive of a multi-billion dollar division of a company who is a good friend and met for tea. How do we find the next idea and the people to execute on it? Fast forward and asked me if I can present a few slides on their internal business idea and how I would disrupt them! Now that’s quick. I did mention I would write a job description.

Job description: Entrepreneur in Residence – Disrupt our industry and put us out of business!

We are looking for someone to disrupt us and maybe take over what we have been doing for the last 40 years by changing the rules in the next 3 years! We believe in the Business model warfare of company mortality is now accelerating faster than before! So we want to create and sustain value for our stakeholders and ecosystem by disrupting ourselves! (http://www.innovationlabs.com/publications/business-model-warfare/). Why would our ecosystem, customers, employees and shareholders like this. Because this ensures that we stay ahead of the curve not by planning, but by what we don’t see and someone else does. Uber, Airbnb, SolarCity, et al are disrupting incumbents exactly like that and we don’t want to be left saying “I wish I had thought of that!”

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KPIs:

1. Report to the CEO, CFO and Chief People’s Officer and board

2. Create your idea, poach your team from our best minds inside the company or outside, base you and your team wherever you believe the best minds exist and collaborate to disrupt our industry

3.  Launch within 6 months with an equity investment from our company with a Right of First Refusal to buy the parent company (not vice versa)! This is the ROI/ROE

4.  Single goal. If you and your team of EIRs cannot disrupt our division(s) or corporate structure and business model, we will still work with you

5.  Start in the next 60 days from this ad

 

What are we looking for?

1. Your value system!

2. Your vision!

3. Your execution!

4. Your team!

Compensation structure:
Like all startups. We agree to invest $5m at seed and as per your business plan will work till exit with mainstream capital so that the parent’s gets acquired or, and you also acquire our competition or render us obsolete.

Experience:
You cannot have the experience, because if you did we would have already been acquired. What we need is your deep vision, commitment, team and ecosystem around you. We also decided you cannot be looking for just a salary, because if you did you would be like all of us in the company doing what we do because we learnt it yesterday.

Love to hear your thoughts folks. Just sending this in to my friend.

PS: Asked me for a few slides as what I did as improv which got him to call his team and say, our plan for the last few months may need radical rethinking so you continue and let’s see what comes in 3 slides on the weekend.

Wallstreet disrupted! Direct Public Offerings and Behavioral Economics

Why is DPO or a Direct Public Offering, the long tail of finance ripe for disruption? It is simple. This is the long tail of financing and suffers from the same dynamics of the Pyramid Parallax. Now imagine every time you bought a tea or a burger or fruit from your farmer or your groceries at your local store or in your state, you were actually moving inventory, had a share in the equity of the busies and could trade your shares in a secondary market and not be troubled by how companies you could not observe were spending your investing dollars as a stock ticker on Wall street trading desks?

What happens when millions of small business owners with good fundamentals serving their local customers and ecosystems well in their neighborhood need to expand, get more efficient and don’t have access to mainstream capital? How big is that market? Look around your home and you have the answer!Every day millions of SMB owners lack the ecosystem connect to raise capital, expand marketshare, attract talent, attract the best business advisory and create greater value. This is a behavioral economics paradigm. It’s like we tend to choose queues in stores that are longer. However this is the market opportunity.

For example the average lend of under $500,000 per business added to over $126 B to 260,000 small businesses in the United States. However this is just the tip of the iceberg and like the #PyramidParallax of agriculture offers the same opportunity to connect SMBs and Consumers alike with a huge difference. disrupting intermediaries of mainstream capital and consumers being part of the experience.

“SBA has supported more than $126 billion in lending to more than 260,000 small businesses and entrepreneurs.”

http://www.sba.gov/content/sba-lending-activity-fy-2013-shows-sba-continuing-help-small-businesses-grow-and-create-jobs

PyramidParallax                    Screen Shot 2014-07-17 at 7.14.32 AM

 

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https://www.census.gov/econ/susb/

FORTUNE AT THE EDGES OF THE “PYRAMID PARALLAX”, DIRECT ACCESS!

http://gerardjrego.com/2014/07/04/fortune-at-the-edges-of-the-pyramid-parallax-direct-access/

So what is a DPO? Direct Public Offerings (DPOs) are a model of raising capital by selling equity (Section 504 exemption)the way any company would when they list on a major exchange such as NASDAQ or NYSE or LSE, except with a major difference. The securities are sold to a limit of $1m directly by the company or business to large numbers of unaccredited investors of the public within the state of business. This serves well especially if the customers and ecosystem state holders of the business can invest in a company that they buy the products and services and have the opportunity to share the risk and improve the value by investing.

Direct public offering
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_public_offering

 

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http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-05/how-to-go-public-without-a-stock-exchange

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/01/business/smallbusiness/seeking-capital-some-companies-turn-to-do-it-yourself-ipos.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The early signals are clear. This market is ripe for disruption.

So applying our methodology of Inventory Lifecycle Return framework which is a set of algorithms that can model, capture and create value through business models we came up with a possible startup for a team. The framework is an interdisciplinary set of algorithms and models between Behavior+Supplychain+Business models+Financial metrics.

So we modeled DirectPublic.  A direct marketplace for the long tail of investing, connecting small businesses to investors who largely will be consumer or customers in the ecosystem of the business and this is a disruptive startup opportunity.  So leveraging our framework we put together a business plan and plug this live with some of the slides to share our work, contrary to what most folks do as the devil is in the detail and the detail is in our algorithmic framework.

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We see the opportunity to create a marketplace that disrupts main street investing ecosystem is ripe. Why now?

1. Commoditization of behaviors at < $0.001/click

2. Behavioral economy is now mainstream, Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, SolarCity, et al

3. Emergence of smallholder ecosystems that are now connectable by marketplaces around mobility

4. The scale of industry

The derivative potential spinoffs of hyperlocal or DPO investing are;

1. Greater resilient communities

2. Reducing conflict

3. Sustainable social networks

4. Creating local opportunities for mainstream capital and adjacent ecosystems

5. Including the “excluded” due to scale

Screen Shot 2014-07-17 at 6.22.10 AM  http://www.premise.com  is a very good example of signals and market access.

 

This is part of our work and if you think that this is a real business plan, you bet it is. Most of the slides are not presented but would give you a core ideas of the work from what are. What we have is the behavioral-economic framework as algorithmic deep analytics which we are modeling across industries and identifying the disruptors/disruptive opportunities. A fund?

 

 

 

Drones, Behavior+Inventory+Marketplaces, disrupting the status quo

A quick update on a call with a potential disruptive tech inventor team. Question tabled was how to leverage the IP and tech created for the drone industry?

The idea is to share a few slides but the framework as well as the conversations are confidential in nature. What we document in parts is to keep sharing our work at a conceptual level with the actual data and work within our team, till we publish the work as launch a company or service around the deep algorithms and analytics.

The industry was around energy or that is not necessarily what the entrepreneurial team saw it as, until this conversation around the  Inventory Lifecycle Return framework that we presented.

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The discussion that  on how to look at the Inventory Lifecycle Return framework that we have developed and in the process of publishing. It enables the modeling, value capture and valuation of inventory as assets and liabilities across any industry, company or ecosystem as well as the investing dollars for that inventory.

 

A few slides from that discussion is below and SolarCity was the example modeled.

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DESIGNING FOR “BEHAVIOR”

http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/05/designing-for-behavior/

BehaviorsDisruptingInventory      BehaviorsDisruptingInventory1

 

 

Post our discussion we have all come out saying we have a model that can analyze any industry, understand and model where and what the real value is and how to capture, invest or connect markets. What if this was a service that we could have entrepreneurs, investors, companies and ecosystems leverage as a service. That is what we are working on at the moment as a team.

 

Market signals continue, at the edges of the #pyramidparallax

Adding a few quick slides and notes to the June 16, 2014 blog as the signals continue so critical that the government of India has to plan and budget for the risks, volatility and food security or lack of it that continues to impact the long tail of agriculture, which is a challenge and gap globally. As you can see the headlines continue.

Screen Shot 2014-07-11 at 9.37.35 PM  Screen Shot 2014-07-11 at 9.38.05 PM http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/agriculture-gets-priority-in-narendra-modi-govt-budget-2014/1/208042.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/11/india-inflation-farming-idINKBN0FG0H020140711

 

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http://wef.ch/1oqbiqo

 

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http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1998-11-25/news/9811250108_1_sonia-gandhi-onions-congress-party http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Food-prices-rose-157-between-2004-and-2013/articleshow/22777817.cms

The blog was a discussion on where the real opportunity to disrupt and the real value capture with the inclusion of the long tail where the IRR was equally critical and included as the intermediary that would connect the two ends of what I call the #PyramidParallax MarketSignal_Oct2013 MarketSignals

DISRUPTING MEDIA, CROWDSOURCING SIGNALS INTO MARKETS. How do take traditional media which is today whether print, online, tv or mobile are looking for a business model(s)? Behavioral signals are the persuasive technologies that when aggregated into markets and close the loop around prosumers are the gap and the opportunity. Think Airbnb, Uber, Solar City, etc.

http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/16/disrupting-media-crowdsourcing-signals-into-markets/ The reason is the the #PyramidParallax as this one single image so brilliantly illustrates
PyramidParallax
http://www.shellfoundation.org/download/pdfs/transforming_agricultural_supply_chains.pdf http://www.farmaid.org/site/c.qlI5IhNVJsE/b.6097643/k.A9BA/Concentration_in_Agriculture_Forcing_our_Family_Farmers_Out_of_Business.htm
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/07/04/fortune-at-the-edges-of-the-pyramid-parallax-direct-access/
These are the quick notes on the update as these signals will continue to come across all fragmented industries Agriculture, BFSI, Healthcare, Education, et al and the big challenges which are ripe for disruption. The opportunity to connect and provide direct access to the edges of the #PyramidParallax has never been greater with all variables multiplying their causal effects from population growth to agricultural productivity and climate change. The Inventory, Stock Turns, Cash Conversion Cycle and GMROI are very clear metrics and you know where they are most felt. People who produce upstream and folks who connect us downstream. The rest is lost in translation in the middle.

Why your behavior is the new weather channel?

“What if your bank could tell you how your daily spend impacts your health and link to a greater or lesser interest rate return or cut on your loan?”

Presented this slide in June to a senior executive on how the real opportunity is deep behavioral data analytics which is both “Predictive” and “Reactive”. This was a company with over $1T in assets under management and the next question was. Can you come and consult to our teams and company on how we leverage this opportunity on big data,but that is really about behavioral economics? This is about “Prosumption”, the model of where “it is not mass production, but production by the masses”. Everyone is a producer of data and a consumer of analytics with one critical difference, you are equal the beneficiary of the prosumption cycle.

 

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Saw these headlines last week and now and that’s the direction. Prosumption is disrupting consumption.

Car insurance companies want to track your every move—and you’re going to let them http://qz.com/230055 via @qz

 

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Your Doctor Knows You’re Killing Yourself. The Data Brokers Told Her, By Shannon Pettypiece and Jordan Robertson  Jun 26, 2014 9:35 AM PT

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-26/hospitals-soon-see-donuts-to-cigarette-charges-for-health.html

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Google Tests Personal Data Market To Find Out How Much Your Personal Information Is Worth http://www.technologyreview.com/view/528866/google-tests-personal-data-market-to-find-out-how-much-your-personal-information-is/ >@TechReview

 

BEHAVIOR IS THE NEW WEATHER CHANNEL!
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/20/behavior-is-the-new-weather-channel/

behavior

 

Why is economics of behavior the next frontier for companies and government. The economics of Risk-Return. Today’s models of return, risk modeling, asset valuations, liability costing, et al have a fundamental flaw and critical missing variable. “Behavior”!

This is where the real IRR is. behavior is an inventory that has multiple stock turns, predictably irrational and as a visible hand that don’t tie in with today’s ability of cost of discovery less than $0.0001 per click to find the real value of inventory and determine whether it is an asset or liability and what to offer next. This is where the real disruption of value chains lie.

Capacities are being disrupted by units and the models are all around behavior.

DISRUPTING MEDIA, CROWDSOURCING SIGNALS INTO MARKETS.
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/16/disrupting-media-crowdsourcing-signals-into-markets/

ACCESS OF BEHAVIORS AS UNITS, DISRUPTING OWNERSHIP?
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/14/access-of-behaviors-as-units-disrupting-ownership/

This sums it all up.

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http://247wallst.com/autos/2014/07/07/google-chief-sees-end-to-individual-car-ownership/

http://www.khoslaventures.com/fireside-chat-with-google-co-founders-larry-page-and-sergey-brin

 

The writing in on the wall and time to read business model warfare all over again.  http://innovationlabs.com/BusModelWarfare.pdf

A study in 2003 titled “Business Model Warfare – The Strategy of Business Breakthroughs”, by Langdon Morris Senior Practice Scholar Ackoff Center for the Advancement of Systems Approaches (A-CASA), The University of Pennsylvania, http://www.innovationlabs.com/publications/business-model-warfare/

…highlighted the mortality of companies which was quite startling.

Fortune 500:
A study by planners at Shell found that by 1983, one-third of the companies listed among the 500 in 1970 had not only fallen from the list, but had gone out of business altogether. That’s an average mortality rate of 12 companies per year, or one per month.

Forbes 100
In 1917, Forbes magazine created its own list of the largest 100 US companies. By 1987, 61 of those companies no longer existed. Over the seventy year span, in other words, an average of about one company per year disappeared.

 S&P 500
The S&P 500 list provides a third reference point. In 1957, the S&P listing of 90 top companies was expanded to 500. By 1997, only 74 of the original 500 companies remained, an average mortality rate of more than 10 per year. But a more detailed analysis shows that the rate of mortality has been steadily increasing, with far more companies failing as the end of the century approached.

This is now further accelerated. The economics of behavior as inventory has changed and commoditized. This is the tsunami of change and behavior is the new weather channel.

 

Fortune at the edges of the “Pyramid Parallax”, Direct Access!

It is not just bottom of the pyramid, but in reality it’s a “Pyramid Parallax”. The two ends of the long tail separated by concentration of tens of trading desks and platforms that connect buy-sell markets, disconnecting the two ends. This is where the greatest disruptive opportunities exist across industries as we are witnessing today with tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars locked or lost in translation of inefficiencies from the upstream to downstream. The Shell Foundation on agriculture highlighted the concentration which is a brilliant illustration of concentration (H Grievink (2003), The Supply Chain ‘Bottleneck’ in Europe) of agriculture in Europe where 110 trading desks determine what 160 million consumers get and 3.2m farmers produce! It’s the same globally! The gap today globally is over $450 Billion in just agricultural inputs alone and this is just one end of the pyramid.

450M SMALLHOLDER FARMERS AND A $450 BILLION MARKET! IT’S ALL MOBILE, SENSORS, ANALYTICS AND MARKETPLACES.
http://gerardjrego.com/2013/12/03/450m-smallholder-farmers-and-a-450-billion-market-its-all-mobile/

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http://www.shellfoundation.org/download/pdfs/transforming_agricultural_supply_chains.pdf

http://www.farmaid.org/site/c.qlI5IhNVJsE/b.6097643/k.A9BA/Concentration_in_Agriculture_Forcing_our_Family_Farmers_Out_of_Business.htm

So what are we attempting. Behavioral supplychain optimization of the “Pyramid Parallax”. There is much to be learnt for how people’s behaviors when aggregated into market signals connecting the Pyramid Parallax is disrupting concentration in industries as we have seen in SolarCity, Uber, Airbnb, etc The impact of the Pyramid Parallax is multiple levels of intermediation that just pass on the signals without real value addition, often between 1:6 to 1:10 end to end benefitting no single stakeholder in the ecosystem. A direct access platform as a single intermediary would collapse inefficiencies, create economies of scale and scope, transparency with end to end better  value capture, resulting in new behaviors commoditized by technology.

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http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err167.aspx#.U7b8VBbiPgI

So why is “Access” such as critical component of food security? Because demand side of 7B people today and slated to reach over 9B by 2050 by the UN estimate, 450m farmers who are increasingly not generating profits and have to rely on very expensive government subsidies, increasing water scarcities and climate change, increasing costs of supplychain, warehousing and distribution, combined with concentration of trading desks that focus on a few commodities that don’t connect the long tail of the “Pyramid Parallax” have all combined to create an incredible challenge of a broken ecosystem that is ripe for disruption.

These images I saw the last weekend on my way back from a meeting at the Ferry Building in San Francisco which reflects the real challenges of small farmers in North America, no different than the ones across the world.

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Everyone from the USDA to the Bill Gates Foundation to Shell, KPMG and a whole host of companies, organizations, academia and others are attempting to solve this super critical challenge that is hurting what we do today, whether we live in North America or Europe, Asia, Africa or South America. The impact is the same. So is the model to disrupt and hack this incredibly important market signal, “Access”.

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Agriculture Deputy Secretary Kathleen Merrigan, April 19, 2011. “As I talk to farmers across the country, regardless of what they produce or where, they all share one common challenge:  how to best move product from the farm to the marketplace.  This is especially crucial for small and midsize farmers who may not have enough capital to own their own trucks, their own refrigeration units, or their own warehouse space.  They might not have the resources to develop sophisticated distribution routes, build effective marketing campaigns or network with regional buyers and customers.”

http://blogs.usda.gov/2011/04/19/food-hubs-creating-opportunities-for-producers-across-the-nation/

http://blogs.usda.gov/2011/04/19/food-hubs-creating-opportunities-for-producers-across-the-nation/
http://blogs.usda.gov/2014/03/14/secretarys-column-growing-opportunity-for-small-and-mid-sized-farmers-and-ranchers/
http://www.shellfoundation.org/download/pdfs/transforming_agricultural_supply_chains.pdf

 

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https://www.kpmg.com/global/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/pages/agricultural-and-food-value-chain.aspx

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http://dalberg.com/documents/Catalyzing_Smallholder_Ag_Finance.pdf

 

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Our work is in optimization of platforms that enable direct trading via aggregating connecting adjacencies with a key pivot. Interplay of behavior-supplychain-capital- technology. Potential impact across the “Pyramid Parallax”

  1. Greater predictably form behaviors
  2. Enhanced efficiencies in supplychain management with optimized inventory, logistics and supplychain management
  3. Greater profit margins for both ends
  4. Higher quality
  5. Locavore food behaviors

 

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BEHAVIOR IS THE NEW WEATHER CHANNEL!

http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/20/behavior-is-the-new-weather-channel/

DISRUPTING MEDIA, CROWDSOURCING SIGNALS INTO MARKETS.
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/16/disrupting-media-crowdsourcing-signals-into-markets/

ACCESS OF BEHAVIORS AS UNITS, DISRUPTING OWNERSHIP?
http://gerardjrego.com/2014/06/14/access-of-behaviors-as-units-disrupting-ownership/

 

Conclusion: The fortune is at the edges of the “Pyramid Parallax”, Direct Access for all, inclusive by design and sustainably around triple bottom-line metrics.